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November pace was the lowest since April 1995 and much lower than forecasts "forecasts 720000. Inventories of homes on the market fell on the eighth month to 505,000, the lowest level (seasonally adjusted) for a period of two years. However, in view of slowdown sales, inventory represents 9.3 months of sales. While in August last year to 9.4 months of supply were slightly higher in November was the second highest since October 1981.
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The average price of new housing fell in November for $ 14600 to $ 293300 in October, but the average price was 0.5% more than in the previous November. The average price increased by $ 9600 to $ 239100, but 0.4% lower than a year earlier.
In December, the pace of sales is expected to once again declined by about 1.1% to 640000.
The first of next week, two Treasury note auctions will be held on Monday. The proposal is to issue a monthly 2-Year Notes. Last month, the sale met with sluggish demand. The rates exceeded 22 billion U.S. U.S. proposes an amount of 2.23 to 1, slightly better than the 2.21 bid to cover ratio in the auction in November, but below an average of 2.88 over the previous twelve issues in December. Noncompetitive bids, a gauge of individual investor demand, was $ 525 million compared with $ 617 in November and below twelve months on average $ 765 million.
Foreign demand has been relatively mild. Indirect competitive bids, which include those from foreign central banks, was 25.4% of the issue. Although this activity was slightly since November Prize share 23.5%, it dropped from twelve month on average 30.4%.
The issue has been the size and trends of the proposal next week, is expected to a nominal value of 24 billion U.S. USA. If this is accurate, it will become the largest offers since April 2005. The larger size of May weaken demand.
On Tuesday, the first issue of the day, with the report on durable goods orders last month. Durable goods are defined as intended to last three years or more. They tend to be labor-intensive to produce, expensive, and therefore often are financed. Because of this, the trend in orders gives some idea of the upcoming production and the impact of interest rates could be on the process.
The report for November said that seasonal fluctuations in the volume of orders increased by 0,1%, but this was subsequently revised in the factory orders report to the decline of 0,1%. This was more bearish than expected, especially given the fact that it marks the fourth month of decline - an unusual phenomenon in the data series. Therefore, the revival between 1,5% and 2,0% forecast in December.
Later on Tuesday morning, the Conference Board, and the independent research firm, will release its data on the consumer confidence index for the current month. In December, the overall index came in at 88.6, which is an upwardly revised 87.8 in November (previously 87,3). Forecasters were looking for a reading closer to 87.0. However, while the expectations index rose to 75.5 from 69,1 (68,7 earlier), the index of consumer assessment of current conditions fell to 108.3 from 115,7 (115,4 previously).
Despite the increase in the overall index, Lynn Franco, director of the consumer research center has compiled data thus: "This month's confidence slight increase was due solely to increase the index of expectations. Consumer short-term projections about business conditions, employment, inflation, and stock prices improved slightly. However, while consumers are less negative on the near foreseeable future, they are still far from optimistic. Furthermore, the continuous reduction in the present situation index indicates the economy is still losing momentum. W Indeed, in assessing the existing labour market, pessimists, now outnumber optimists. Regarding the business environment, the gap between them is virtually non-existent. "
Reducing projected confidence index in January as a whole forecasts ranging between 87.0 and 88.0.
Tuesday brings more Treasury supply in the form of monthly 5-Year Note issue. Like the 2-year issue last month in the 5-year issue met with sluggish demand. In the bid to cover ratio was 2.31, compared with 2.26 in November, but less than twelve months, an average of 2.47. Noncompetitive tenders amounted to only 85 million U.S. USA, the smallest amount in 5-Year offers from October 2005.
Foreign demand was decent, but not exceptional. Indirect bidding received 28.4% of the issue, compared with the share of the award in November, 21.0%, and slightly higher than in the twelve months by an average of 27.7%.
On Wednesday, the Commerce Department will publish the first - or in advance - estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) for the fourth quarter. GDP is the market value of all final goods and services produced by labor or property in the country a year? Ы time. Quarterly adjusted data, and for the year, and changes from quarter to quarter point to the strength and direction of the economy. This month's report will be held until a preliminary report in February and a final report in March.
According to last month's final report for the third quarter, GDP grew by one year at a rate 4.9% in July to September period. This was the strongest increase since the third quarter of 2003.
Economic activity is expected to have fallen in the fourth quarter. Residential investment continue to sag, and the latest report on international trade showed a sharp increase in the November trade gap. Nevertheless, analysts believe, the level of economic activity grew by about 1.5% in the previous quarter.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the monetary policy arm of the Federal Reserve, will conclude its two-day meeting on Tuesday. Between June 2006 and early August 2007, the Fed took no action, but to maintain the pace of a few hawkish (ie tightening) bias, citing higher core inflation and the fear that he might not abate as expected.
But the troubled housing and mortgage industries have begun to obstruct the flow of credit, as investors with the support of risky mortgage debt, thereby undermining its value. Consequently, lenders generally tightening lending standards, making it harder to borrow money. Meanwhile, owners of mortgage loan products suffered losses, as buyers were in short supply. This bottleneck reduces the amount of money flowing through the monetary system and the device measures the cost of borrowing.
Through a complex network of risk distribution in world markets, the problem of credit and the Fed finally intervened and made an extraordinary 0.50% pieces of the discount rate in August last year. The discount rate is the interest rate banks account for loans directly from the Fed. Thus, as compared with 6.25% to 5.75%. In addition, the committee extended reserves can be drawn, and he made a public relations seek to reduce the negative connotations in such loans (loans Fed, as a rule, considered extreme measures).
Nevertheless, the short-term commercial debt offers dried up, and investors have flocked to the safety of government securities. In order to ease the credit situation, the Fed decided at its September meeting its objective to reduce the fed funds rate, the rate banks charges each other for overnight loans, to 0.50%, from 5.25% to 4.75%. This was the first rate cut since June 2003, and the largest since November 2002. The policy committee also lower the bid again by 0.50% from 5.75% to 5.25%.
Then, in October meetings, the committee reduced rates so again, but at 0.25%, bringing the fed funds rate to 4.50% and the discount rate to 5.00%. They both cut rates again in December meeting at 0.25%, lower fed funds target to 4.25% and the discount rate to 4.75%.
In the Fed has taken additional measures in December to enhance liquidity. Since borrowing directly from the Fed traditionally seen as a sign that the bank is in trouble, this source of funds has been avoided, even though the maturity date was extended to August, and the Fed encourages banks to use the service. In order to preserve cash flows from bogging down, the Fed holds Auction Term Fund (TAF), a temporary program, in which short-term funds can be obtained through the auction with a wide range of collateral. At the auctions were held two times per week, beginning in mid-December.
Earlier this week, economic jitters sent global stock markets nosedive in the market and to the United States opened on Tuesday following the three-day weekend, the Fed announced that the policy committee conducted an emergency meeting and decided to cut out as a target fed funds and the discount rate to 0.75 %, bringing them to 3.50% and 4.00%, respectively.
Issues facing now traders are: the Fed will cut again next week, and if so, how many? Many observers believe that a more forthcoming reduction of the prices of fed funds futures contract suggests that the reduction of at least 0.25% will be achieved, and possibly 0.50% cut. No matter what the outcome, some traders find themselves in the wrong place and the markets are likely to react strongly to the policy announcement. This is usually released at about 2:15 pm Eastern Time.
On Thursday, unemployment claims report will be announced the approach on Friday in the employment report, even though the collection of data for the two periods are different. In yesterday's report, the Labor Department said that the seasonally adjusted level of initial claims for state unemployment benefits in 1000 fell last week to 301000. Last week, in an initial reading was revised 301000 to 302000. The latest decline was the fourth in as many weeks, bringing the rate up to seventeen week low.
Recently, the movement may have been exaggerated by incorrect seasonal factors associated with the holidays. Forecasters were looking for a bounce following the decline of the previous three weeks, which employs 55000. Despite the possible distortions of the holiday, and the latest initial claims figures indicate an increase in wage growth. Any reading below 400000 indicates that the pace of layoffs is hiring.
The four week moving average, which smooths some short-term fluctuations, fell by 14000 to 314750, its lowest level since early October. The average weekly reading for all of last year was 322135. During the first three weeks of this year, an average of 308333.
The report said that the level of requirements for the continuation of the week ending January 12 (continuing claim to be at least a week ago) declined by 75000 to 2672 thousand, the lowest reading in five weeks. Four weeks on average fell by 10250 to 2715250. In contrast to the initial claims data, continuing claims remain above trend. For all of 2007, average weekly reading was 2551231.
Meteorologists predicted the bounce in the level of initial claims during the past two weeks, and they do not change their position now, despite the continuing slide. The increase between 10000 and 20000 is expected at this week's claims level.
Thursday also brings labour cost index, a measure of the seasonally adjusted level of compensation costs for all civilian workers. The index is a more comprehensive assessment of labor costs than wage data contained in the monthly employment reports, as it also includes salaries and employer costs for non-cash payments to employees.
In ECI rose 0.8% in the third quarter, after 0.9% growth in the second. Salaries and benefits of both rising at 0.8%. On the increase in wages was the same as in the second quarter, but growth is slowing allowances 1.3% from the second quarter increase. In the fourth quarter, the index is expected to once again increased by 0.8%
Another parole on Thursday with the report on personal income and spending for the last month. In November, in the report, the Commerce Department said that personal income, the fuel for consumer spending, rose by 0.4% compared with 0.2% in October. But personal consumption expenditure (PCE or expenses) increased by 1.1%. This was the largest monthly PCE increase since July 2005 and was much stronger than forecasts of 0.8% growth. October as originally reported increase of 0,2% was also revised up to 0,4% and 0,3% in September growth was revised up to 0,5%.
One of unwanted inflation in the report was 0.6% growth in the PCE price index, the highest increase since September 2005. Much of the hike was due to energy prices, however. With the exception of food and energy, so-called core price index was only 0.2%.
During December, personal income is expected to once again increased by 0,4%, but spending is expected to have increased by only 0,1%. On PAYDAY LOANS F.A.Q. the increase would be the lowest since September 2006.
The final economic release on Thursday is the Chicago purchasing managers index, a gauge of manufacturing activity in the highly industrialized region. The index came in at 56.6 in December, compared with 52.9 in November, and higher than analysts' forecasts of 52.0. Any reading above 50.0 reflects a general increase in activity relative to the preceding month. The December reading was the strongest in six months. A slightly weaker growth 53.0 reading projected in the January reading.
Despite the fact that the Chicago PMI is often seen as an indicator of how the national index will move, the correlation between the indices was not strong lately. In the past twelve months, they moved in that direction only four times.
On Friday employment report will be high on the market. In November, in the report, the Department of Labor said that the seasonally adjusted level of nonfarm payrolls increased by 18000. Although it was fifty-second month of employment growth, it was the weakest of them, and less than analysts' forecasts of an increase of 70000. In upward revision of November's originally reported rise of 94000 to 115000 little solace in October increase was previously reported 170000 to 159000 trimmed.
In addition, weak employment growth, observers were struck by reports leap in unemployment, the percentage of the active labour force out of work, with a 4.7% to 5.0%. The size of the leap in unemployment is the biggest since October 2001 and the rate was the highest in two years.
Projections call for January increase in nonfarm payroll between 55000 and 60000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 5.0%.
Another major release on Friday, is an indication of the country in the manufacturing sector from the Institute of Management (ISM). The index came in at 47.7 in December, after 50.8 reading in November. As in the Chicago PMI, a reading below 50.0 indicates the overall decline in activity, and in December in activity was the first since January 2006, and the weakest reading of the index since March 2003.
Estimates for January reading ranged from 47,0 to 48,5. This will mark the first parallel activity in 2003.
Housing gets once-over on Friday, when a report on construction spending in the last month went. In November, the Commerce Department report said on seasonal fluctuations, the annual rate of construction spending rose by 0.1% in October after reduction at 0.4%.
But in November was derived from the increase in nonresidential category. The pace of residential construction spending fell by 2.4%. This is, after declining 2.3% in October and 2.2% decline in September. Indeed, in November was the twenty-first consecutive decline in the housing sector and the pace was the lowest since September 2003.
As the pace of residential construction spending is expected to have fallen again in December, helping to promote the overall cost rate down by about 0.5%.
The final economic release this week is the final read on consumer sentiment for the month twice a month Studies at the University of Michigan. The preliminary index, published a week ago, came in at 80.5, compared with December, in the final reading of 75.5. The increase was the first in six months, and the reading was the highest in three months. Forecasters were predicting a further decline to about 75.0.